Azerbaijan won't be able to use 'caviar diplomacy' generously as formerly

In an interview with Artsakhpress, political scientist Ashot Margaryan told about the possible influences of social and economic crisis in Azerbaijan, caused by deflation of oil prices and Azerbaijani manat devaluation on the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict.

The interview is presented below.

– Mr. Margaryan, manat devaluation and deflation of oil prices caused political chaos in Azerbaijan. What influnces the current situation will have on the Azerbaijan foreign policy in terms of Karabakh conflict?

Continuative decline of world oil prices put Azerbaijan on the threshold of a deep economic crisis. It is not a secret, that Azerbaijan’s 2/3 revenue is generated from the export of hydrocarbon resources. Foreign investments are also important factors in economic development, which are also expected to be cut down because of the sharp decline in Azerbaijani oil income.

As Bloomberg stated, in terms of the strengthening of the American currency, oil prices could fall to $ 20 per barrel, which will have catastrophic consequences in the economy of Azerbaijan.

Indeed,mitigation can be implemented only through the use of official reserves, which are not inexhaustible.

Since 1994, Azerbaijan has become one of the BP key investment markets. However, nobody wouldn’t make investments in such an unstable country that is not only at war but also is in economic crisis.

As everywhere, in Azerbaijan also depreciation of currency that rises more than 50% after transition to a floating exchange by the central bank is accompanied by corresponding price hikes. As a result, reduction in arms purchases, financial resources allocated for foreign embassies and lobby groups will be observed. Massive job cuts will take place in the country and unemployment will rise.

In this situation it is obvious that Azerbaijan will not be able to use “caviar diplomacy” generously as formerly and on the international platform the anti-Armenian propaganda will be weakened.

– It is no secret that Azerbaijan is trying to divert public attention from the own failures of the domestic industry. How the Karabakh card will be used within domestic policy context?

– During unfavorable domestic political developments, the Azerbaijani authorities always try to divert public attention on foreign problems. Karabakh conflict, Armenia and Armenian Diaspora are served as a tool for this purpose.

In Azerbaijan political dissidents, human rights activists and NGOs are considered as Armenian lobby agents. Such accusations are also addressed to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and James Warlick, US Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Dozens of journalists prosecuted on criminal and civil defamation and other criminal charges carry the label of Armenian spies.

This phenomenon has emerged primarily since Ilham Aliyev came to a power, 2003.

It is quite predictable that in such a chaotic situation Azerbaijan will increase border tension. However, I believe that the solution of everyday-life issues will be more important for Azerbaijani citizens than the resumption of war for territories that don’t belong them.

– What developments can be expected from the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace settlement process?

– In 2016, overcoming its domestic problems, Azerbaijan will continue the ceasefire violations along the Line of Contact. But it’s hard to imagine that Baku will launch large-scale operations. Focusing on domestic issues, Aliyev will not create uncontrolled tension.

Unfortunately, there are factors, which are unchangeable, as our geographical position and neighbors. Apart of our army, which is the only guarantee of our security, we need to use all available diplomatic and political measures to keep peace. In fact, the outcome of the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was resolved 22 years ago. The evidence of it is Artsakh as a free, independent, sovereign state and at the same time an integral part of Armenia.

If we turn to the negotiation process, we can say that there is no peace, no process, and there is no rational solution of the problem in the current behavior of Azerbaijan. It is not possible to solve the conflict’s consequences if you do not first solve its causes. Indeed, so far we have not been so far from a peace treaty. It seems that we negotiate for negotiating only, until one side will get nervous and will create a new geo-political situation to change the status quo.

The Republic of Artsakh continues to stay out of the current negotiation format. In addition, the mutual understanding between the parties is impossible as Azerbaijani side fired shots at villages, rejects to withdraw snipers from the contact line. In Azerbaijan the political will to resolve the conflict lacks. Any peace initiative is rejected by Azerbaijan. Keeping situation tense on the frontline, Azerbaijan aims to suppress the Armenian side politically and psychologically.

Today, Azerbaijan’s defense budget is larger than Armenia’s military budget, but waging war Azerbaijan will have not only economic but also territorial losses. We have a lot of factors: combat readiness of our army, positional advantage and other factors.

artsakhpress.am